Political Desk

People have been asking me who I think will win the local races, and my answer is generally some variation of: “I have no idea.”
Most of the local races are difficult to handicap.
I think it’s entirely possible that Commissioner Leslie Lewis could get an outright win tonight, negating the need for a November runoff. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if she and challenger Kris Bledsoe finish in the top two.
Lewis has taken some lumps over the years, but she’s also one of the most seasoned politicians in the county. The question is: How big will the “anti-Lewis” vote be?
I don’t think it will be as big as her opponents hope. At the very least, I don’t think it necessarily follows that every person who voted for Measure 48 is going to vote against Lewis. And it’s difficult to predict the demographics of that vote when it splits three ways.
In House District 24, I suspect Jim Weidner has the edge.
He filed first, so has had the most time to campaign. And he’s made good use of it.
He’s made a particular effort to reach out to social conservatives, and they tend to dominate Republican primaries in Yamhill County.
One factor playing into this race, curiously, is the presidential election. Republicans have only John McCain, who is both: 1) unopposed and already the presumptive nominee; 2) regarded with suspicion, discomfort or even derision by many hard-core party faithful.
In the U.S. Senate primary, Gordon Smith also raises feelings of ambivalence or worse among many party stalwarts. And like McCain, he’s a lock for the GOP nomination in his race.
The conventional wisdom flowing from that is that many Republicans may not vote, and those who do will tend to be the kind of died-in-the-wool conservatives Weidner has been courting.
However, the dynamics of a three-way race — particularly one like this where you have three  strong, active, well-financed candidates — can make the conventional wisdom waters murky. I don’t think anyone in the race can feel totally assured of how the vote for the other two will split. This is one where I have a pretty good idea of what will happen, but I’m also prepared to not be surprised by anything.
The only other local race I care to speculate on is the clerk’s race. My guess is that we’ll see Jeff Doty and Kent Van Cleave in a November run-off — assuming the latter doesn’t win it outright.
Van Cleave is one of the few candidates who won’t be at a party tonight. He’ll be at work in the Yamhill County Clerk’s Office — handling tasks that have absolutely nothing to do with counting ballots, of course.
Doty will be doing the same up in Washington County, where he’s worked in the clerk’s office for many years. He’ll have a freer hand, though, as he’s not on the ballot there.
Finally, no prognostication skill at all is required to project Barack Obama blowing Hillary Clinton out of the water tonight. My prediction will be this: Clinton will continue to campaign, informing us that “the math” is meaningless.
She knows she still has a shot. It’s just moved from 2008 to 2012. That campaign, I predict, will begin in earnest in, say, Janaury 2009.
So check back here tonight.
Reporters Jillian Beaudry and Kelly Copeland will be out in the field, so to speak, with laptops at the ready. Marcus Larson will be out in the field with lenses at the ready. And I’ll be down here at the office, updating our web site and working the phone.
The fun starts at 8:01 p.m.